問 1
What is the main idea of the passage?
- The basic reproduction number R₀ is the only figure epidemiologists need to forecast an outbreak.
- Mathematical models have proven incapable of describing how diseases spread through a population.
- Public fear during an epidemic should be ignored because it distorts otherwise accurate forecasts.
- Epidemic models are imperfect predictors but are valuable for comparing the likely effects of different policy choices.
treated as a laboratory for policy, it becomes indispensable
本文全体は「モデルは正確な予言装置ではないが、政策比較の道具として不可欠」という論旨。
「Epidemic models are imperfect predictors but are valuable for comparing the likely effects of different policy choices.」
正解本文は (1) モデルとは何か (S-I-R 区画と R₀)→ (2) その限界 (仮定の単純化・人間行動の可変性)→ (3) 真の用途 (death toll の特定ではなくシナリオ比較) という構成で進む。最終段の Treated as a crystal ball, a model will disappoint; treated as a laboratory for policy, it becomes indispensable がまさに主旨。よって「モデルは不完全な予測装置だが政策選択の効果比較に価値がある」が正解。
「Mathematical models have proven quite incapable of describing how diseases spread through a population.」
= 数学モデルは記述不能だと証明された ━ 本文は This paradox does not render modelling useless と明言しており『記述不能』は逆。
「The basic reproduction number R₀ is the only figure that epidemiologists need in order to forecast an outbreak.」
= R₀ だけあればよい ━ R₀ は most cited な指標として紹介されただけで『唯一必要な数値』とは述べていない。
「Public fear during an epidemic ought to be ignored because it distorts otherwise accurate forecasts.」
= 公衆の恐怖は無視すべき ━ 本文は行動変化を予測が外れる原因として説明するだけで『無視せよ』とは主張していない。
| パターン | 意味 | 例 |
|---|---|---|
| the arc of an outbreak | 流行の推移・全容 | sketch the entire arc of an outbreak |
| move between states | 状態間を移動する | the rate at which people move between these states |
| be only as good as ~ | ~次第でしかない | A model is only as good as its assumptions. |
| render ~ useless | ~を無用にする | This does not render modelling useless. |
| treated as ~ | ~として扱われると | Treated as a crystal ball, it will disappoint. |
A model can sketch the entire arc of an outbreak.
モデルは流行の全容を描き出せる。
The forecast is only as good as its assumptions.
予測はその前提次第でしかない。
Treated as a laboratory for policy, the model is indispensable.
政策の実験室として扱えば、そのモデルは不可欠だ。
主旨設問は最終段の対比文 (Treated as A, ... ; treated as B, ...) に答えが凝縮されやすい。本文も crystal ball (失望) vs laboratory (不可欠) の対比が核。