EigoPro 準1級 読解 — The Replication Crisis

For most of the twentieth century, a published scientific finding was treated as settled fact. That assumption began to crumble around 2011, when psychologists attempting to reproduce well-known experiments discovered that a striking proportion of them simply could not be replicated. The phenomenon, soon dubbed the "replication crisis," has since spread to medicine, economics, and beyond, forcing researchers to confront an uncomfortable possibility: that the published record is riddled with results that are, at best, fragile. Several pressures conspire to produce this fragility. Academic careers hinge on publication, and journals overwhelmingly favour novel, statistically significant results over confirmations of what is already known. A researcher who runs twenty analyses and reports only the one that "worked" is not necessarily committing fraud; more often, this selective reporting is unconscious, a product of the very human tendency to find patterns and to believe the flattering ones. Compounding the problem, replication studies—painstaking and unglamorous—rarely advance a career, so few scientists undertake them. Reformers have responded with concrete remedies. Pre-registration, in which researchers publicly commit to their hypotheses and methods before collecting any data, makes it far harder to disguise a fishing expedition as a confirmed prediction. Some journals now guarantee publication of pre-registered studies regardless of outcome, severing the link between novelty and reward. None of this implies that science is broken. On the contrary, the crisis is itself a demonstration of science correcting itself—publicly, and in full view of its critics. The discomfort it causes is the price of a discipline willing to interrogate its own foundations.

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この単元の問題を3問、解説つきで公開しています

準1級 · 読解 · 全5

1

What is the main idea of the passage?

  • Journals should stop publishing any study that reports a novel result.
  • Science is exposing and beginning to fix the unreliability of some of its published findings.
  • Psychology is fundamentally less rigorous than medicine or economics.
  • Most scientific findings published in the twentieth century have turned out to be fraudulent.
Phrase

the crisis is itself a demonstration of science correcting itself

準1級読解科学ジャーナリズム主旨把握
ひとことで

本文全体は「科学が自らの欠陥を暴き、是正し始めている」という論旨。

選択肢の解説Choice Analysis

Science is exposing and beginning to fix the unreliability of some of its published findings.

正解

本文は (1) 再現できない結果が多数あると判明した→ (2) その原因 (出版圧力・選択的報告・再現研究の不人気)→ (3) 改革 (事前登録) という構成で、最後に「危機は科学が自己修正している証拠」と結論する。したがって「科学が一部の発表結果の信頼性のなさを暴き、是正し始めている」が主旨。

  • Most scientific findings published in the twentieth century have turned out to be fraudulent.

    = 20世紀の発表の大半が不正だった ━ 本文は selective reporting は『不正とは限らず無意識』と明言しており、大半が fraud とは言っていない。

  • Psychology is fundamentally less rigorous

    = 心理学は本質的に厳密性が低い ━ 心理学は危機が『最初に』表面化した分野として挙げられただけで、他分野より劣るとは述べていない。

  • Journals should stop publishing any study that reports a novel result.

    = 新規な結果の掲載を全てやめるべき ━ 本文は novelty 偏重を問題視するが『新規結果の掲載を全廃せよ』という極端な主張はしていない。

Collocation
パターン意味
be treated as settled fact確定した事実とみなされるThe finding was treated as settled fact.
begin to crumble崩れ始めるThat assumption began to crumble.
a striking proportion of ~~のかなりの割合a striking proportion of them
be riddled with ~~だらけであるThe record is riddled with errors.
at best良くてもfragile at best
例文
  • A striking proportion of the experiments could not be replicated.

    実験のかなりの割合が再現できなかった。

  • The old assumption began to crumble after 2011.

    その古い前提は2011年以降崩れ始めた。

  • The report is riddled with unverified claims.

    その報告は検証されていない主張だらけだ。

💡Tip · 覚えるコツ

主旨設問は最終段の結論文を探すと速い。本文は逆接 (On the contrary) の直後に著者の立場が来る型。

2

According to the passage, why do few scientists carry out replication studies?

  • Such studies are laborious and do little to advance a researcher's career.
  • Replication has been shown to be statistically impossible in most fields.
  • Journals legally prohibit the republication of earlier experiments.
  • Researchers are forbidden from re-running colleagues' experiments.
Phrase

replication studies—painstaking and unglamorous—rarely advance a career

準1級読解科学ジャーナリズム詳細把握
ひとことで

再現研究は『骨が折れ・地味で・キャリアに繋がらない』ため誰もやらない。

選択肢の解説Choice Analysis

Such studies are laborious and do little to advance a researcher's career.

正解

第2段末で再現研究を painstaking (骨の折れる)・unglamorous (地味な)・rarely advance a career (キャリアに繋がらない) と描写し、so few scientists undertake them と結ぶ。これを言い換えた「労力がかかり、研究者のキャリアをほとんど前進させない」が正解。

  • Journals legally prohibit

    = 雑誌が法的に禁止している ━ 法的禁止という記述はない。問題はインセンティブの欠如であって禁止ではない。

  • statistically impossible

    = 統計的に不可能 ━ 本文は再現が『不可能』とは言わず『割に合わない』と述べているだけ。

  • forbidden from re-running

    = 再実験を禁じられている ━ 禁止の事実はなく、やる動機がないという話。

Collocation
パターン意味
advance a careerキャリアを前進させるReplication rarely advances a career.
hinge on ~~次第であるCareers hinge on publication.
undertake a study研究に着手するFew scientists undertake them.
painstaking work骨の折れる作業painstaking and unglamorous
favour A over BBよりAを好むJournals favour novelty over confirmation.
例文
  • Careers hinge on publication, not replication.

    キャリアは再現ではなく出版次第だ。

  • Few scientists undertake such painstaking work.

    そんな骨の折れる作業に着手する科学者は少ない。

  • The journal favours novelty over confirmation.

    その雑誌は確認より新規性を好む。

💡Tip · 覚えるコツ

detail 設問は本文の語を別語に置換した選択肢が正解になりやすい (painstaking→laborious, rarely advance→do little to advance)。

3

How does pre-registration help address the crisis?

  • It rewards scientists financially for novel discoveries.
  • It allows researchers to change their hypotheses after seeing the data.
  • It forces researchers to declare their hypotheses and methods in advance, making selective reporting harder to hide.
  • It guarantees that every experiment will produce a significant result.
Phrase

publicly commit to their hypotheses and methods before collecting any data

準1級読解科学ジャーナリズム詳細把握
ひとことで

事前登録=データ収集前に仮説と手法を公表→後付けの隠蔽を困難にする。

選択肢の解説Choice Analysis

It forces researchers to declare their hypotheses and methods in advance, making selective reporting harder to hide.

正解

第3段で pre-registration を『データ収集前に仮説・手法を公に宣言すること』と定義し、makes it far harder to disguise a fishing expedition (後付けの探索を確証予測に見せかけること) と説明する。これを言い換えた選択肢が正解。

  • It guarantees that every experiment will produce a significant result.

    = 有意な結果を保証する ━ 事前登録は結果を保証しない。むしろ結果に関わらず掲載を保証する仕組み。

  • It allows researchers to change their hypotheses freely after they have already seen all of the data.

    = データを見た後に仮説を変える ━ 事前登録はまさにこれを防ぐ仕組みなので正反対。

  • rewards scientists financially

    = 金銭的に報いる ━ 金銭報酬の記述はない。

Collocation
パターン意味
commit to ~~を確約するcommit to their hypotheses
in advance前もってdeclare methods in advance
disguise A as BAをBに見せかけるdisguise a fishing expedition as a prediction
sever the link between A and BAとBの結びつきを断つsever the link between novelty and reward
regardless of outcome結果に関わらずpublish regardless of outcome
例文
  • Researchers commit to their methods in advance.

    研究者は手法を前もって確約する。

  • The journal publishes the study regardless of outcome.

    その雑誌は結果に関わらず研究を掲載する。

  • Pre

    registration severs the link between novelty and reward. — 事前登録は新規性と報酬の結びつきを断つ。

💡Tip · 覚えるコツ

因果・目的設問では「make it harder to V」のような効果を述べる動詞句を探す。選択肢は本文の disguise を hide に置換している。

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