問 1
What is the main idea of the passage?
- Cognitive biases are rare malfunctions that careful, well-trained experts can easily eliminate.
- Human judgement is shaped by built-in mental shortcuts, so reliable decisions depend on external safeguards rather than willpower.
- Because the human mind is hopelessly irrational, attempting to improve decision-making is futile.
- Confirmation bias and anchoring are the only two biases that meaningfully affect human reasoning.
good judgement is less a personal virtue than a structure we must deliberately construct around our fallible minds
本文の論旨は「思考は生得のバイアスに支配されるので、良い判断は外部の仕組みで担保せよ」。
「Human judgement is shaped by built-in mental shortcuts, so reliable decisions depend on external safeguards rather than willpower.」
正解本文は (1) 人間は思っているほど合理的でなくバイアス (mental shortcuts) が判断の default setting だ→ (2) 具体例 (確証バイアス・アンカリング)→ (3) バイアスは効率的ゆえ頑固で、認識しても消えない→ (4) だから checklists や committee など external safeguards を構築すべき、と展開する。最終文の『good judgement is less a personal virtue than a structure we must deliberately construct』を言い換えた選択肢が主旨。
「Cognitive biases are rare malfunctions which careful and well-trained experts are able quite easily to eliminate.」
= 稀な誤作動で専門家なら容易に除去できる ━ 本文は they are the default setting であり awareness does not dissolve it と明言、稀でも容易に除去でもない。
「the only two biases that meaningfully affect」
= 影響するのはこの2つだけ ━ 確証バイアスとアンカリングは『例 (Consider...)』に過ぎず、2つだけとは述べていない。
「Because the human mind is hopelessly irrational, any attempt at all to improve our decision-making is futile.」
= 絶望的に非合理で改善は無駄 ━ 最終段で not that humans are hopelessly irrational と明確に否定しているので正反対。
| パターン | 意味 | 例 |
|---|---|---|
| lead someone astray | 人を誤らせる | These shortcuts lead us astray. |
| the default setting | 初期設定・標準状態 | Bias is the default setting of judgement. |
| weigh evidence | 証拠を吟味する | We rarely weigh evidence dispassionately. |
| fall prey to ~ | ~の餌食になる | We fall prey to bias as readily as anyone. |
| build a safeguard around ~ | ~の周りに防護策を築く | We build safeguards around fallible minds. |
These mental shortcuts often lead us astray.
こうした心の近道はしばしば我々を誤らせる。
Bias is the default setting of human judgement.
バイアスは人間の判断の初期設定だ。
Good judgement is a structure we must construct.
良い判断は我々が構築すべき仕組みだ。
主旨設問は最終段の結論文 (especially not A but B / less A than B 構文) を探すと速い。本文は最後の『less a virtue than a structure』に主張が凝縮。